Max Verstappen arrives in Monaco as a two-time winner at the venue and fresh from his first podium of 2026 — yet on Formula 1's official F1 Nation podcast, the panel delivered a blunt verdict on Red Bull's chances: too big an ask.
Verstappen's third place in Canada was a milestone, marking the first podium in the history of the Red Bull Power Trains engine project. But James Hinchcliffe argued the result flattered a car that remains fundamentally off the pace, and warned that Monaco's demands expose exactly the weakness Red Bull cannot fix overnight.
"Too big," Hinchcliffe said when asked if Red Bull could turn it on in Monaco. "Compliance is so important in Monaco, and that was one of the biggest complaints that Max had in Montreal."
The Montreal podium, Hinchcliffe insisted, came with heavy caveats. Verstappen was running well outside the leading group on pure pace and was hauled in dramatically late in the race.
"It took a Mercedes DNF and a double McLaren strategy blunder to even be in the conversation," Hinchcliffe said. "He was tracked down by — I mean, what was that gap that Hamilton closed up? Six, seven, eight seconds, something like that. That podium comes with an asterisk beside it for sure. I just don't see that car being as competitive as the first three teams in Monaco."
Compliance — the ability to absorb kerbs and bumps while keeping the car settled — is the single most prized quality on the streets of Monte Carlo, and it is precisely what Verstappen has been missing. A car that struggles to ride the circuit's relentless kerbs and cambers cannot carry the confidence a Monaco lap demands.
There was, however, a flicker of hope. Jolyon Palmer pointed to a genuine step Red Bull found between the sprint and qualifying in Canada, suggesting the team may have unlocked a slice of the very quality it needs.
"The only saving grace for Red Bull that I saw was the change they made from the sprint to qualifying, where they found a good chunk of that compliance," Palmer said. "Looking through the sector times again, Max and Isaac Hadjar as well were really quick in the first sector. So that's the only little bit of hope I could see for them — maybe they did find something there and it brought them closer towards the front."
Palmer's caveat was that the gains only count if the car translates them onto a circuit as unique as Monaco, and that Red Bull have too often started a weekend on the back foot.
"We'll only know when the car hits the ground," he said. "I feel like they need to start better off than they have done recently."
The contrast with Verstappen's past Monaco glories is stark. Twice a winner here, the Dutchman has historically thrived on a circuit where qualifying position is decisive and racecraft counts for little. But the panel's reading of Red Bull's 2026 machine — short on downforce, short on compliance, and reliant on chaos for its best result of the year — left little room for optimism.
For a driver whose future beyond 2026 has become the sport's biggest talking point, another anonymous weekend on a track he has conquered before would only sharpen the questions. Monaco, the panel agreed, is unlikely to provide the answers Red Bull want.
---
*Originally published on [News Formula One](https://newsformula.one/article/verstappen-red-bull-monaco-compliance-asterisk). Visit for full coverage.*